Country Risk Analysis (Maastricht Summer School)

Introduction

Country Risk Analysis 1: Political Risk Indicators, Geo-Economics and Report Writing [Summer School]For the seventh time, Dr. Leonhardt van Efferink (GeoMeans) is Course Leader at Maastricht Summer School in 2019.

One of his courses is Country Risk Analysis. Below, you find more information about this course. To apply for this Summer School, please click here.

Please contact Leonhardt if you cannot find the answer to your question on this page.

“Leonhardt’s extensive professional experience as a country risk analyst particularly benefitted the course: He constantly managed to round-up theoretical discussions with valuable advice and hints from a practitioner’s side.” – Matthias from Germany

Introduction to Country Risk Analysis Summer School

Timetable
Click on the image to download pdf file with timetable of this course

The Asian Crisis in 1997-1998, Argentina’s default in 2001 and the recent economic downturns in Brazil, Russia and South Africa underline the relevance of country risk analysis for companies, policymakers and NGOs.

This course teaches you the skills to study country risks in Emerging Markets from an economic perspective. What kind of research framework do banks use to assess country risk, and which concepts are pivotal in this regard? What are important economic risk drivers, and what are their critical values? How can these economic risk drivers affect country risk?

To answer these questions, you complete an assignment in which you collect open source data required for a thorough economic risk analysis of two Emerging Markets. In the next assignment, you write the economic risk section of a country risk report about the same countries.

To prepare for this section, you learn how to use the ‘causal chain canvas’ tool to visualize the direct and indirect effects of a change in economic risk drivers. In the final assignment, you compare the economic risks of your two Emerging Markets with those of your teammates.

You will present your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments.

Goals of Country Risk Analysis Summer School

▪ Designing an analytical framework to study the country risks in Emerging Markets;
▪ Comparing the macro-economic risks and the underlying drivers of different countries;
▪ Assessing the impact of changes in other economies and the world economy on one particular country;
▪ Finding, selecting and interpreting open-source data;
▪ Boosting your employability by acquiring valuable skills required for positions in business, government and academia.

Timetable of Country Risk Analysis Summer School

Maastricht University, The Netherlands, 22-26 July 2019 (Timetable may be subject to change)(To apply for this Summer School, please click here)
Session Types: (IL) Interactive Lecture; (RD) Roundtable Discussion; (SP) Student Presentations; (WS) Workshop
Day Start Time End Time Title Type
Monday 9:00 10:00 1. Introduction of Convenor, Participants and Program RD
10:00 11:00 2. Country Risk Concepts IL
11:00 13:00 3. Internal Economic Risk Indicators IL
(Lunch Break)
14:00 15:00 4. Your Assignments IL
15:00 16:00 5. Working with Open Source Data WS
Tuesday 9:00 10:00 6. Time Series For Emerging Markets (Internal Economic) SP
10:00 11:00 7. Country Risk Quiz WS
11:00 13:00 8. External Economic Risk Indicators IL
Wednesday 9:00 10:00 9. Time Series For Emerging Markets (External Economic) SP
10:00 12:00 10. Working with the Country Risk Canvas WS
12:00 13:00 11. Writing a Country Risk Report IL
Thursday (Finishing Your Country Risk Report and Your Presentation for Friday)
Friday 9:00 12:00 12. Comparison of Emerging Markets SP
12:00 13:00 13. Lessons Learned and Way Forward RD

Suggested literature for Country Risk Analysis Summer School

Below you find some general reading suggestions. It is not required to do some reading before the course.

If you like to read something, select the sources that are closest to your research interests. Alternatively, please ask Leonhardt for personal reading advice.

▪ Iranzo, S. (2008) Delving into Country Risk. Banco de España, Occasional Paper No. 0802
▪ Van Efferink, L., Kool, C. and Van Veen, T. (2003) Country Risk Analysis. NIBE-SVV.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2014) How do you select Country Risk Indicators?
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Transfer Risk Definition, Methodology and Ratings [Reading List].
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Sovereign Risk Ratings, Government Debt Defaults and Emerging Market Bond Spreads [Reading List].
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Our Framework of Country Risk Indicators.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Our Framework of Country Risk Concepts.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) How do you find Country Risk Data?
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2018) Our Template for Country Risk Reports.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2018) Macro-Economic Risk Indicators [Reading List].

To apply for the Country Risk Analysis Summer School, please click here.

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